This optimistic projection follows an anticipated growth rate of 3.3% in 2024, which reflects signs of recovery in the global economy and the continued revival of the national economy. Presenting the execution of the 2024 Budget and outlining the framework for the 2025 finance bill (PLF) along with the three-year budget plan for 2025-2027, Fettah addressed a joint meeting of the finance committees of both Houses of Parliament.

The meeting, chaired by Enaam Mayara, Speaker of the Moroccan parliament's upper House of Councillors, and attended by Fouzi Lekjaa, Minister Delegate for the Budget, provided a platform for Fettah to emphasize that medium-term growth is expected to surpass the 4% target.

“These forecasts are subject to revision should global growth prospects, especially in Europe, deteriorate due to geopolitical tensions, or if another year of drought leads to below-average agricultural output,” cautioned Fettah.

The minister also stressed that the formulation of the 2025 PLF and the three-year budget plan are occurring during a phase where government action is intensifying to complete major projects and meet the commitments of the government program. This effort is aligned with the High Royal Directives and the recommendations of the new development model.

Key assumptions for the macroeconomic framework for 2025-2027 include cereal production reaching 70 million quintals, Brent crude oil priced at $80 per barrel, butane at $450 per ton, and an exchange rate of 9.8 dirhams to the dollar, with inflation expected to stabilize at 2%.

Effective fiscal policy and debt control are crucial for maintaining the sustainability of public finances, Fettah emphasized. She highlighted the importance of progressively reducing the budget deficit to ensure this sustainability, a major pillar of government action.

“Reducing the budget deficit will balance the implementation of reform projects and development initiatives, and strengthen budgetary margins to preserve the resilience of the national economy against potential shocks,” she explained.

For the 2025-2027 period, the budget deficit is targeted to be reduced to 3.5% of GDP in 2025, and further to 3% in 2026 and 2027. The debt ratio is also expected to decline from 69.5% of GDP in 2023 to approximately 66% by the end of 2027, ensuring debt sustainability and rebuilding budgetary margins to tackle future risks and crises.

Regarding the 2024 Budget execution, Fettah stated that inflation is expected to return to levels consistent with the price stability objective, averaging 1% in the first half of 2024, compared to 7.9% during the same period in 2023, primarily due to a significant drop in food prices.

During the same period, exports increased by 4.4%, imports by 2.3%, and the trade deficit decreased by 1%, equivalent to 1.2 billion dirhams.

Fettah also indicated that the current account deficit of the balance of payments should not exceed 2% of GDP in 2024, with foreign exchange reserves at Bank Al-Maghrib covering five and a half months of imports.

The budget deficit showed improvement compared to the first half of 2023, decreasing to 27.5 billion dirhams, representing approximately 44.3% of the level projected by the finance law.