The slowdown would be due to a sharp decline in tourism, measures to contain the spread of the pandemic, likely poor harvests, a recession in Europe and lower commodity prices, explained the EBRD's latest edition of "Regional Economic Prospects", which reports on economic prospects in its regions of operations.
Growth could be boosted by the development of non-agricultural sectors, in particular the mining industry, mainly due to the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on phosphate production in China, noted the same source, estimating that Morocco, the world's second largest phosphate producer, could take advantage of the fact.
Furthermore, the report pointed out that in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region, the negative impact of the coronavirus is expected to be manifested in tourism (a major driver of growth in all economies in the region in 2019), as well as in a decline in domestic demand due to containment measures, reduced demand from major trading partners and a slowdown in foreign direct investment flows.
On average, the region's economies are expected to contract by 0.8% in 2020 before rebounding to 4.8% growth in 2021.